Climate Change Chronicles February 2024

Keeping up with the staggering volume of news about climate change and the race to decarbonize the global economy can be overwhelming, especially since much news and analysis is increasingly behind media paywalls. That’s why the PLM Green Global Alliance prepares the monthly Climate Change Chronicles to offer a quick-to-scan digest of news from around the world about the impact of a changing climate on people and the planet. (For news about the use of Product Lifecycle Management in creating a more sustainable low-carbon circular economy, follow PLM Green on LinkedIn.)

Our good news question of the month: what country is reported to have added 300GW of new renewable energy from solar and wind during 2023? Read on to find out and learn what else you might have missed in your own news feeds that should motivate us all to take more action, now, faster, together.

The European Copernicus project reports that January was the 8th straight month of record global temperatures. It was also the first time that temperatures exceeded the Paris Agreement threshold of 1.5 deg C (2.7 deg F) for a continuous twelve-month period.

It was the hottest January on record for the planet’s oceans that absorb most of the extra heat due to GHG emissions. Many marine scientists are shocked with how fast the North Atlantic has been warming in the past two years.

(Featured image of global average sea surface temperatures from https://climate.copernicus.eu/climate-indicators/sea-surface-temperature.)

An increasing number of climate researchers now worry that we have already blown past the 1.5 deg guardrails for good and are on path toward a rise of 2 deg. Many are equally concerned that the public has now accepted the inevitability of long-term global warming and that their leaders are consumed by other crises around the world, despite many of these disasters being caused in part by climate change.

While this winter is mild in much of the Northern Hemisphere, regions of the Southern Hemisphere are reporting another summer of record heat. Nigerian meteorologists have issued a prolonged heat wave warning as temperatures soar above 40 deg C or 104 deg F. Some locations in Western Australia experienced their warmest night on record with temperatures failing to fall below 80 deg F followed by days of high fire hazard with schools and national parks shuttered.

Researchers are using the chemical composition of centuries-old sea sponge skeletons found in the Caribbean Sea to arrive at better estimates of Earth’s temperature before the industrial age. They are startled by finding that human activities have raised temperatures by a greater amount than previously estimated. Now some scientists believe we have already increased temperatures by about 1.7 deg C (3.1 deg F) and not the 1.2 deg C previously thought.

Meteorologists are debating whether to create a new Category 6 classification for hurricanes. Up until now, a Cat 5 was the top storm, but with global warming hurricanes are becoming more intense with lower pressures, higher winds, heavier rainfalls, and higher storm surges. New research suggests that if temperatures exceed a 4 deg C increase, the risk of a Cat 6 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico is tripled.

A new alarming study warns that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ocean current is speeding toward an abrupt shift that would have dire implications for the northern hemisphere’s climate.  Changes are being accelerated due to rapid warming in the Arctic and melting of Greenland’s ice sheets.

The AMOC is only one of several global tipping points that if breached would have irreversible devastating consequences. Other global tipping points include thawing of permafrost, melting of Greenland ice sheets, loss of ocean coral reefs, and the collapse of Amazon and Boreal Forest ecosystems.

The collapse of the West Antarctica Ice Sheet is another tipping point. The giant Thwaites Glacier, which is the size of Florida, helps stabilize the continent’s ice sheet, but scientists report that it has been losing ice at an accelerated rate since the 1970s. The glacier currently contributes about 4% of current sea rise but if it collapsed it could raise sea levels by more than 2 feet. If the ice sheet then melts, sea levels could rise another 10 feet.

A new study published in Nature warns that the tipping point of the collapse of the Amazon rainforest could be coming sooner than first thought possible. Stresses on the forest ecosystems from deforestation, droughts, fires, disease, and extreme heat may transform half of the forest in the coming decades, releasing the equivalent of several years of global emissions. Already the southeastern Amazon basin has shifted from being a carbon sink to a carbon source. The Amazon as a hold is said to hold up to 20 years of current human generated CO2 emissions.

A foul-smelling example of how much some segments of our global economy and agriculture needs to change was witnessed in Cape Town, South Africa, this month. A putrid stench fell over much of the city when a 623-foot-long ocean livestock carrier with nearly 20,000 head of cattle onboard was docked to take on new feeding stocks and likely offload waste.  Live cattle are reported to be in transit for weeks at a time in horrible conditions from their Brazilian farms on the way to the Middle East markets.

Well known U.S. climate scientist Michael Mann won a decade-long legal battle against bloggers who defamed him by claiming he manipulated his research data and compared him to a child molester. For years climate scientists, their work and even families, have been attacked and slandered by conservative hacks and climate deniers.

Warm winters are affecting tourism, wildlife habitats, outdoor safety, and recreation across the US.  Parts of the upper Midwest, which are normally cold and snow covered in February, are reporting bare ground with a record number of days with temps in the 50s.

Michigan residents and visitors are experiencing changes due to global warming firsthand this winter. Recreational activities and traditions like fishing on frozen lakes, cross-country skiing, winter festivals, and snowmobiling are more difficult to find this winter which is on track to be their warmest on record.

A lack of cold temperatures and snow this winter is also affecting European traditions and recreation as well. As example, in the Swiss Alps, the annual snow polo tournament was called off due to slushy and sloppy unfrozen playing fields.

Two European pioneers of wind energy are the winners of the Queen Elizabeth Prize for Engineering, often referred to as the Nobel prize for engineering. Danish Henrik Stiesdal and British Andrew Garrad will share this year’s award. This comes as a new report says that in 2023 more of Europe’s energy came from wind turbines than fossil gas power plants.

The Energy Information Administration announced it will start collecting energy use data from cryptocurrency mining sites in the US. There are over 130 such data centers in the US that are said to produce over a third of all bitcoin, using an estimated 2.3% of the nation’s total electricity, and in the process producing 25-50 million tons of CO2 emissions. Globally, crypto mining is thought to use as much electricity as the entire country of Australia, about 1% of the world’s total energy demand.

A continued drought thru central America is drying up the freshwater lakes that feed the Panama Canal. Ship traffic thru the canal has been reduced by some 40%, forcing some vessels to divert travel on longer ocean routes, producing yet more carbon emissions.

Health officials in Brazil report that a Dengue disease outbreak is projected to infect over 4 million people this year. Officials blame record heat and above-average precipitation that has increased mosquito populations. The WHO warns that dengue is becoming a bigger global health threat as the planet warms, even in locations where it has historically been absent, such as the US.

The state of New York is suing Brazilian-based meatpacker JBS’s U.S. subsidiary. The state accuses the world’s largest meat supplier of misleading consumers by greenwashing their environmental record and unrealistic net-zero climate goals.

Farmers in Europe are protesting against environmental policies that aim to cut fuel subsidies, reduce pesticide use, restore ecosystems, and reduce emissions. This comes at the same time many farms are under pressure due to a changing climate that produces more extreme temperatures and precipitation.  Agriculture accounts for nearly a third of all GHG emissions.

Locust populations in the most fragile agricultural locations of the global south may expand and explode as the planet heats up. Locusts thrive in warmer temperatures where there are more intense rainfalls.

Monarch populations wintering in Mexico this year are reported to be at their second-lowest observed levels. Entomologists think that hotter and dryer conditions across the western U.S. and Canada decreased the quantity and quality of milkweed plants that the butterflies depend upon.

Polar bear habitats like Canada’s Hudson Bay are experiencing weeks longer periods each year without sea ice, forcing bears to forage on land for survival.  The population of bears there has already fallen by nearly half in the past four decades. Scientists expect that each new decade will see an additional 5-10 days without sea ice.

The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that during 2023 some 2.5 million people were forced from their homes by weather-related disasters. The country experienced 28 billion-dollar plus disasters last year from hurricanes, flooding, storms, droughts, and wildfires.

However, not all weather-related disasters are due to climate change say researchers at the World Weather Attribution project who study climate change by using models that predict the likelihood and intensity of extreme weather events.

Historic winds and rainfall of over 10 inches devastated parts of California this month when successive storms powered by atmospheric rivers of moisture pummeled the state. Some locales received nearly half of their average annual rainfall, resulting in a state of emergency with mass evacuations, fatalities, flash flooding, mudslides, power outages, fallen trees, blocked roads, closed schools and businesses.

A new normal for everyday life has settled into the residents of states like California. Year-after- year its residents are experiencing catastrophes from droughts, wildfires, extreme rainfalls, mudslides, and flash flooding.

Homeowners in states like California are finding that insuring their homes is becoming more difficult and expensive due to increasing extreme weather events precipitated by climate change. As insured losses over the last four years have topped $100B, insurance companies in some locales are refusing to renew policies or underwrite new ones.

While the wealthy can afford higher priced policies or to self-insure themselves after a disaster, the poor are left more vulnerable by a warming planet. Low-income families and elderly renters are often the most at risk when disaster strikes at finding a new home.

As the potential for shooting pass the Paris Accords goals seems inevitable, some scientists are proposing bold planetary geoengineering mitigation strategies. One idea includes constructing a gigantic space parasol sunshade of about one million square miles in size that would block the sun’s rays from striking parts of the Earth’s atmosphere. With the efficacy and cost yet known, others say this is a foolish idea that distracts from investing in technologies that reduce emissions right now.

President Biden’s 2022 IRA bill, which will turbocharge the country’s green energy transition, is now expected to cost nearly double the initial estimates, more than $800B. The good reason for the increase due to more clean-energy manufacturers, green energy providers, and consumers expected to take advantage of the incentives and tax credits.

As the U.S. presidential election nears, a recent poll showed that nearly three-quarters of Americans say that they had heard little or nothing about the IRA legislation, the most important climate act to date that promises to help decarbonize the U.S. economy.

Some auto manufacturers in the U.S. are expressing worry that sales of EV’s are stalling out. Likewise, consumers who bought big EVs, like battery-powered trucks, are learning that mileage varies a great deal due to weather conditions and vehicle use such as passenger count and cargo loads.

Sales of EVs are expected to grow at their slowest rate since 2019. As a result, electric carmakers in the U.S. and Europe are lowering prices to remain competitive and fend off less expensive vehicles like those from China’s BYD. Some manufacturers are looking at partnerships that may lead to consolidation, while others are scaling back their levels of investment and employment.

Global demand for liquified natural gas is expected to increase by 50% over the next 15 years, according to Europe’s largest energy company, Shell. Most of the demand will be from China as it moves away from coal to gas. While burning gas produces less emissions than coal, some scientists think that the total lifecycle difference is not that great considering how gas is produced and transported, especially by ships across oceans.

LNG supplies from North America are expected to double by the end of this decade as the U.S. now leads the world in production. Since the Biden Administration has paused approval of new LNG terminals, gas sellers are now looking at piping the gas to new export terminals to be constructed on the Pacific and Caribbean coasts of Mexico.

The production of crude oil in the US set an all-time high for the month of December, 2023. The country has also become the world’s top producer and exporter of natural gas in less than two decades.

A pipeline company has announced plans to build the one of the largest gas pipelines across the U.S. South that would run from Virginia to Alabama. Environmentalists are distraught that this will only lock in decades more of new GHG emissions from the burning of fossil fuels that should be left in the ground.

Exxon-Mobil faces dozens of lawsuits accusing the company of lying to consumers about climate change as it new about the dangers from GHG emissions decades ago. Now, the oil giant is turning the tables by suing activist investors who are seeking to bring shareholder resolutions to the table that force the company to move faster to reduce emissions.

The Biden Administration is said to be easing the deadline on car emissions. Under pressure from auto manufacturers and unions, the President is reported to be shifting the tailpipe emissions requirements which would drive most vehicles to be electric by 2030.

Environmentalists are expressing alarm that if the President loses his reelection this fall much progress in reducing emissions due to the 2022 IRA legislation will be threatened. Republican lawmakers have already tried to repeal much of the act while others are challenging elements of it in the courts.

A global race to save marine ecosystems from climate change includes rescuing underwater giant kelp forests which exist off the Tasmanian coast of Australia and the Pacific Coast of the Americas. Scientists report that kelp is being threatened by warmer ocean temperatures, heat waves, algae blooms, nearby coral bleaching and sea urchins.

The Australian Great Barrier Reef, the largest coral reef in the world, is reported this year to be experiencing its seventh mass bleaching event and fifth in just the past decade. Ocean temperatures are setting records this year due to a combination of climate change and El Nino.

Wall Street financial firms are reported to be pulling back if not flip-flopping on their climate commitments, likely due to pressure from conservative Republicans and their war on so called “ESG woke capitalism.” This is occurring as some states like Texas that have banned doing business with banks that are prioritizing sustainability. Large institutions like JP Morgan have withdrawn from international coalitions of money managers like Climate Action 100+ who are pushing big companies to do more in addressing climate change. Bank of America is said to have reneged on their pledge to stop financing new coal projects around the world.

The growth of renewable power in the U.S. continues to set records, according to BloombergNEF. In 2023 almost 25% of the country’s energy demand was met by renewable sources. Over 40 GW of new green energy was added to the grid last year.

However, a different report from the federal EIA says that utility-scale renewable electricity generation actually fell in the U.S. during 2023. Electricity from wind farms and hydropower plants were down due to droughts and other weather conditions.

While coal-burning power plants continue to be taken offline, they are often being replaced by natural gas plants that while emitting lower GHG still use a fossil fuel whose total lifecycle emissions are high, especially when including methane emissions associated with natural gas extraction and shipping.

The Biden Administration’s EPA is said to be delaying new emissions restrictions on existing gas-fired power plants until after the November election. New rules for coal and new gas plants were already issued last year.

There is growing concern that the rapid rise of computing infrastructure to support Artificial Intelligence is creating an unsustainable energy crisis for that industry. Some generative AI facilities consume the energy equivalent to tens of thousands of homes, and within years some large AI systems may need as much energy as that consumed by entire nations.

Industrial companies are investing in giant battery technologies which can store thermal energy. Batteries the size of shipping containers made up of materials like molten salt would store thermal energy from renewable sources that would then be used in the energy-intensive production of materials such as steel and concrete.

China is adding renewable energy so quickly that its GHG emissions are now expected to peak several years earlier this decade, perhaps as early as this year. China added an impressive nearly 300GW of combined wind and solar in 2023.


Featured image of global average sea surface temperatures from https://climate.copernicus.eu/climate-indicators/sea-surface-temperature.

 

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